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Prehospital Shock Index Multiplied by the Alert/Verbal/Painful/Unresponsive Score as a Predictor of Clinical Outcomes
Po-Chen Lin1,2, Meng-Yu Wu1,2,3, Chien-Hsing Wang2,4
1Department of Emergency Medicine, Taipei Tzu Chi Hospital, Buddhist Tzu Chi Medical Foundation, Taipei, Taiwan.
Objective:
Various prediction scores have been developed to predict mortality in trauma patients, such as the shock index (SI), modified SI (mSI), age-adjusted SI (aSI), and the shock index (SI) multiplied by the alert/verbal/painful/unresponsive (AVPU) score (SIAVPU). The SIAVPU is a novel scoring system but its prediction accuracy for trauma outcomes remains in need of further validation. Therefore, we investigated the accuracy of four scoring systems, including SI, mSI, aSI, and SIAVPU, in predicting mortality, admission to the intensive care unit (ICU), and prolonged hospital length of stay ≥ 30 days (LOS).
Methods:
This retrospective multicenter study used data from the Tzu Chi Hospital trauma database. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) was determined for each outcome to assess their discrimination capabilities and comparing by Delong's test. Subgroup analyses were conducted to investigate the prediction accuracy of the SIAVPU in different patient populations.
Results:
In total, 5355 patients were included in the analysis. The median of SIAVPU were significantly higher among patients at those with major injury (1.47 vs 0.63), those admitted to the ICU (0.73 vs 0.62), those with prolonged hospital LOS≥ 30 days (0.83 vs 0.64), and those with mortality (1.08 vs 0.64). The AUROC of the SIAVPU was significantly higher than that of the SI, mSI, and aSI for 24-h mortality (AUROC: 0.845 vs 0.533, 0.540, and 0.678), 3-day mortality (AUROC: 0.803 vs 0.513, 0.524, and 0.688), 7-day mortality (AUROC: 0.755 vs 0.494, 0.505, and 0.648), in-hospital mortality (AUROC: 0.722 vs 0.510, 0.524, and 0.667), ICU admission (AUROC: 0.635 vs 0.547, 0.551, and 0.563). At the optimal cutoff value of 0.9, the SIAVPU had an accuracy of 82.2% for predicting 24-h mortality, 82.8% for predicting 3-day mortality, of 82.8% for predicting 7-day mortality, of 82.5% for predicting in-hospital mortality, of 73.9% for predicting Intensive Care Unit (ICU) admission, and of 81.7% for predicting prolonged hospital LOS ≥30 days.
Conclusions:
Our results reveal that SIAVPU has better accuracy than the SI, mSI, and aSI for predicting 24-h, 3-day, 7-day, and in-hospital mortality; ICU admission; and prolonged hospital LOS ≥30 days among patients with traumatic injury.
