A Comparative Analysis of ARX and ANFIS Models for Tumor Growth Prediction Under Single and Multi-agent Chemotherapy

Despite the advances in oncology and cancer treatment over the past decades, cancer remains one of the deadliest diseases. This study focuses on further understanding the complex nature of cancer by using mathematical tumor modeling to understand, capture as best as possible, and describe its complex dynamics under chemotherapy treatment.

Focusing on autoregressive with exogenous inputs, i.e., ARX, and adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system, i.e., ANFIS, models, this work investigates tumor growth dynamics under both single and combination anticancer agent chemotherapy treatments using chemotherapy treatment data on xenografted mice.

Four ARX and ANFIS models for tumor growth inhibition were developed, estimated, and evaluated, demonstrating a strong correlation with tumor weight data, with ANFIS models showing superior performance in handling the multi-agent tumor growth complexities. These findings suggest potential clinical applications of the ANFIS models through further testing. Both types of models were also tested for their prediction capabilities across different chemotherapy schedules, with accurate forecasting of tumor growth up to five days in advance. The use of adaptive prediction and sliding (moving) data window techniques allowed for continuous model updating, ensuring more robust predictive capabilities. However, long-term forecasting remains a challenge, with accuracy declining over longer prediction horizons.

While ANFIS models showed greater reliability in predictions, the simplicity and rapid deployment of ARX models offer advantages in situations requiring immediate approximations. Future research with larger, more diverse datasets and by exploring varying model complexities is recommended to improve the models' reliability and applicability in clinical decision-making, thereby aiding the development of personalized chemotherapy regimens.