Prognostic awareness and willingness to explore prognosis in older adults with cancer

Prognostic awareness varies widely among older adults with cancer. Accurate prognostic awareness helps to ensure delivery of care that is aligned with the patient's goals. Understanding factors associated with poor prognostic awareness in older adults with cancer may help identify which patients may need interventions to improve prognostic awareness. In this study, we assessed factors associated with poor prognostic awareness in older adults with cancer.

We conducted a cross-sectional analysis of older patients with cancer referred to a geriatric oncology clinic at the University of Rochester. We provided paper questionnaires for patients to complete prior to their clinic assessment. Questionnaires asked patients to estimate their overall life expectancy and the life expectancy of a person of the same age with normal health. Prognostic awareness was considered poor if patients estimated living at least as long as a person of the same age with normal health. We assessed independent demographic and clinical variables (age, sex, race, income, religion, living situation, education, marital status, and cancer type and stage), aging-related factors (comorbidities, cognition, depression, social support, nutritional status, and physical function), and willingness to discuss prognosis. Factors significant at p ≤ 0.15 on bivariate analyses were included in the multivariable logistic regression model.

We included 257 patients; the mean age was 80 years (standard deviation [SD] 6.8, range 55-97), 37% were female, 71% were White, and 44% were married. Nearly two-thirds of patients (62%) had poor prognostic awareness: 7% estimated they would live longer than and 55% estimated they would live as long as a person of the same age with normal health. Half (49%) were willing to discuss prognosis, 29% were not, and 22% did not answer. On multivariable analysis, factors associated with poor prognostic awareness were older age [one-year increase; adjusted odds ratio (AOR) 1.07, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.02-1.12], race other than White (AOR 2.35, 95% CI 1.09-5.06), unwillingness to discuss prognosis (AOR 3.33, 95% CI 1.54-7.18), and stage I-III cancer (vs. stage IV, AOR 3.83, 95% CI 1.8-8.17).

In a cohort of older patients with cancer, approximately two-thirds had poor prognostic awareness. Older age, race other than White, stage I-III cancer, and unwillingness to discuss prognosis were associated with higher odds of poor prognostic awareness. Interventions aiming to improve patients' prognostic awareness may need to gauge patients' willingness to discuss prognosis.