Survival of biomass and waste power generation: A global overview

Biomass and waste power generation holds the promise to secure electricity supply for a growing population and mitigate global warming simultaneously. Along with the increasing commission and installation of biomass/waste power units (BWPUs) across the globe, some BWPUs failures have been observed, including the cancellation of planned/commissioned BWPUs and the termination of those in operation before reaching their natural retirement. While empirical evidence suggests that factors like feedstock accessibility and policy instruments might affect the feasibility and performance of BWPUs, there is a lack of comprehensive investigation about why some BWPUs failed at the global scale. To fill this knowledge gap, this study quantifies the hazard ratio of BWPUs via a parametric survival analysis using a panel dataset covering a total of 12,829 BWPUs (relying on woody, non-woody, and waste biomass as raw feedstocks) located in 164 countries/regions worldwide for the period of 2001-2021. The analytical results suggest that large unit size is conducive to BWPUs failure, while feedstock accessibility and the implementation of policy instruments (including Feed-in-Tariff and carbon pricing) could largely reduce the hazard ratio of BWPUs, with varying impacts on BWPUs at the planned/commissioned stage or the operation stage, located in developed or developing countries. Our findings not only shed additional light on the fate of BWPUs, which is crucial to enriching our understanding about the development of the bioenergy sector worldwide, but also provide salient empirical evidence for policy-making in terms of ensuring feedstock accessibility, overcoming diseconomies of scale, and making fiscal instruments available and transparent to boost the confidence of investors and entrepreneurs in support of BWPUs development.