Deep learning model integrating radiologic and clinical data to predict mortality after ischemic stroke

Most prognostic indexes for ischemic stroke mortality lack radiologic information. We aimed to create and validate a deep learning-based mortality prediction model using brain diffusion weighted imaging (DWI), apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC), and clinical factors.

Data from patients with ischemic stroke who admitted to tertiary hospital during acute periods from 2013 to 2019 were collected and split into training (n = 1109), validation (n = 437), and internal test (n = 654). Data from patients from secondary cardiovascular center was used for external test set (n = 507). The algorithm for predicting mortality, based on DWI and ADC (DLP_DWI), was initially trained. Subsequently, important clinical factors were integrated into this model to create the integrated model (DLP_INTG). The performance of DLP_DWI and DLP_INTG was evaluated by using time-dependent area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (TD AUCs) and Harrell concordance index (C-index) at one-year mortality.

The TD AUC of DLP_DWI was 0.643 in internal test set, and 0.785 in the external dataset. DLP_INTG had a higher performance at predicting one-year mortality than premise score in internal dataset (TD- AUC: 0.859 vs. 0.746; p = 0.046), and in external dataset (TD- AUC: 0.876 vs. 0.808; p = 0.007). DLP_DWI and DLP_INTG exhibited strong discrimination for the high-risk group for one-year mortality.

A deep learning model using brain DWI, ADC and the clinical factors was capable of predicting mortality in patients with ischemic stroke.