Integrating Spatial Analyses of Genomic and Physiological Data to Understand Avian Responses to Environmental Change

Projected rates of climate change over the next century are expected to force species to shift ranges, adapt, or acclimate to evade extinction. Predicting which of these scenarios may be most likely is a central challenge for conserving biodiversity in the immediate future. Modeling frameworks that take advantage of intraspecific variation across environmental gradients can be particularly important for meeting this challenge. While these space-for-time approaches are essential for climatic and genomic modeling approaches, mechanistic models that incorporate ecological physiology data into assessing species vulnerabilities rarely include intraspecific variation. A major reason for this gap is the general lack of empirical data on intraspecific geographic variation in avian physiological traits. In this review, we outline the evidence for and processes shaping geographic variation in avian traits. We use the example of evaporative water loss to underscore the lack of research on geographic variation, even in traits central to cooling costs in birds. We next demonstrate how shifting the focus of avian physiological research to intraspecific variation can facilitate greater integration with emerging genomics approaches. Finally, we outline important next steps for an integrative approach to advance understanding of avian physiological adaptation within species. Addressing the knowledge gaps outlined in this review will contribute to an improved predictive framework that synthesizes environmental, morphological, physiological, and genomic data to assess species specific vulnerabilities to a warming planet.