Identifying risk zones and landscape features that affect common leopard depredation

Area of Science:

• Wildlife ecology
• Conservation biology
• Human-wildlife interactions

Background:

• Human-wildlife conflict (HWC) is a global challenge, with human-common leopard conflict (HLC) being significant in Nepal's mid-hills.
• Data on HLC in Gorkha district was limited, necessitating research to identify high-risk areas and influencing landscape variables.

Purpose of the Study:

• To map common leopard attack risk zones in the Gorkha district.
• To identify key environmental variables associated with HLC events.
• To inform targeted conservation and mitigation strategies for HLC.

Main Methods:

• Collected and reviewed registered HLC cases from 2019-2021.
• Conducted focus group discussions with herders and villagers to validate records.
• Utilized maximum entropy (MaxEnt) modeling with 163 attack locations and 13 environmental variables.
• Evaluated model accuracy using True Skill Statistics (TSS) and Area Under the Receiver-Operator Curve (AUC).

Main Results:

• The MaxEnt model demonstrated good accuracy (AUC = 0.726 ± 0.021, TSS = 0.61 ± 0.03).
• Approximately 7% of the study area was identified as high-risk for HLC.
• Distance to water (25.2%), distance to road (16.2%), and elevation (10.7%) were the most significant risk predictors.
• Highest risk occurred 1.5-2 km from water sources, near roads, and at elevations of 700-800m.

Conclusions:

• Findings highlight the need for immediate intervention strategies in high-risk zones to protect rural livelihoods.
• Recommendations include improving livestock pen design, insurance, and compensation schemes.
• Further research on victim characteristics alongside landscape variables is suggested for enhanced management practices.