Low-frequency ERK and Akt activity dynamics are predictive of stochastic cell division events

Understanding the dynamics of intracellular signaling pathways, such as ERK1/2 (ERK) and Akt1/2 (Akt), in the context of cell fate decisions is important for advancing our knowledge of cellular processes and diseases, particularly cancer. While previous studies have established associations between ERK and Akt activities and proliferative cell fate, the heterogeneity of single-cell responses adds complexity to this understanding. This study employed a data-driven approach to address this challenge, developing machine learning models trained on a dataset of growth factor-induced ERK and Akt activity time courses in single cells, to predict cell division events. The most predictive models were developed by applying discrete wavelet transforms (DWTs) to extract low-frequency features from the time courses, followed by using Ensemble Integration, a data integration and predictive modeling framework. The results demonstrated that these models effectively predicted cell division events in MCF10A cells (F-measure=0.524, AUC=0.726). ERK dynamics were found to be more predictive than Akt, but the combination of both measurements further enhanced predictive performance. The ERK model`s performance also generalized to predicting division events in RPE cells, indicating the potential applicability of these models and our data-driven methodology for predicting cell division across different biological contexts. Interpretation of these models suggested that ERK dynamics throughout the cell cycle, rather than immediately after growth factor stimulation, were associated with the likelihood of cell division. Overall, this work contributes insights into the predictive power of intra-cellular signaling dynamics for cell fate decisions, and highlights the potential of machine learning approaches in unraveling complex cellular behaviors.