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COVID-19 outbreaks in residential aged care facilities: an agent-based modeling study
Fenella McAndrew1, Rachel Sacks-Davis1,2,3, Romesh G Abeysuriya1,2
1Burnet Institute, Melbourne, VIC, Australia.
Frontiers in Public Health
|June 5, 2024
Summary
To reduce COVID-19 deaths in aged care, maintain recent vaccinations and minimize virus incursions. Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) significantly cut deaths, highlighting their importance in Residential Aged Care Facilities (RACFs).
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Infectious Disease Modeling
- Public Health
Background:
- Residential Aged Care Facilities (RACFs) experience high COVID-19 mortality.
- Evidence is needed to optimize interventions within RACFs to prevent deaths.
Purpose of the Study:
- To assess the impact of community prevalence, vaccination strategies, and non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) on COVID-19 outcomes in Australian RACFs.
- To model COVID-19 mortality in RACFs under various intervention scenarios.
Main Methods:
- An agent-based model simulated COVID-19 outbreaks in RACFs.
- The model was calibrated using 2022 Victorian RACF data on outbreak size, duration, and case fatality rate.
- Scenarios included varying community epidemic waves, RACF vaccination schedules (6-monthly, 12-monthly, none), NPI efficacy (10-50%), and incursion reductions (30-60%).
Main Results:
- RACF outcomes correlated with community infections and incursion rates.
- Vaccination recency was critical: 12-monthly boosters led to 1.2x more deaths, and no boosters 1.6x more deaths compared to 6-monthly boosters.
- NPIs with 10-25% efficacy reduced RACF deaths by 13-31%.
Conclusions:
- Community epidemic patterns are key drivers of RACF outcomes.
- Maintaining recent vaccination, minimizing incursions, and implementing NPIs are crucial for reducing COVID-19 infections and deaths in RACFs.
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