Pacific salmon in the Canadian Arctic highlight a range-expansion pathway for sub-Arctic fishes

Rapid climate change is altering Arctic ecosystems at unprecedented rates. These changes in the physical environment may open new corridors for species range expansions, with substantial implications for subsistence-dependent communities and sensitive ecosystems. Over the past 20 years, rising incidental harvest of Pacific salmon by subsistence fishers has been monitored across a widening range spanning multiple land claim jurisdictions in Arctic Canada. In this study, we connect Indigenous and scientific knowledges to explore potential oceanographic mechanisms facilitating this ongoing northward expansion of Pacific salmon into the western Canadian Arctic. A regression analysis was used to reveal and characterize a two-part mechanism related to thermal and sea-ice conditions in the Chukchi and Beaufort seas that explains nearly all of the variation in the relative abundance of salmon observed within this region. The results indicate that warmer late-spring temperatures in a Chukchi Sea watch-zone and persistent, suitable summer thermal conditions in a Beaufort Sea watch-zone together create a range-expansion corridor and are associated with higher salmon occurrences in subsistence harvests. Furthermore, there is a body of knowledge to suggest that these conditions, and consequently the presence and abundance of Pacific salmon, will become more persistent in the coming decades. Our collaborative approach positions us to document, explore, and explain mechanisms driving changes in fish biodiversity that have the potential to, or are already affecting, Indigenous rights-holders in a rapidly warming Arctic.