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Updated: Jun 24, 2025
06:48
The HoneyComb Paradigm for Research on Collective Human Behavior
Published on: January 19, 2019
9.3K
Game-theoretic agent-based modelling of micro-level conflict: Evidence from the ISIS-Kurdish war.
Olivia Macmillan-Scott1, Akin Ünver2, Mirco Musolesi1,3,4
1Department of Computer Science, University College London, London, United Kingdom.
Plos One
|June 5, 2024
Summary
Territorial control shifts, not geography or time, significantly impact the Rojava conflict between Kurdish rebels and ISIS. The study highlights that attack distribution, not actor behavior, defines the conflict
Area of Science:
- Political Science
- Game Theory
- Conflict Studies
Background:
- Analyzes the dyadic political violence in Rojava, Northern Syria, between Kurdish rebels and ISIS (January 2017-December 2019).
- Focuses on the microdynamics of strategic interactions between near-equally-powered actors in a volatile region.
Purpose of the Study:
- To model and understand the conflict dynamics using agent-based modelling and the Iterated Prisoner's Dilemma game.
- To investigate the key drivers influencing the course of the conflict.
Main Methods:
- Agent-based modelling (ABM).
- Formalization of conflict as an Iterated Prisoner's Dilemma game.
- Analysis of dyadic, strategic interactions between equally-matched actors.
Main Results:
- Shifts in territorial control are more critical than geographical or temporal factors in determining conflict progression.
- The conflict exhibits periods of predominantly one-sided violence.
- Attack distribution and target choices are more indicative of conflict nature than specific actor behaviors.
Conclusions:
- Game-theoretical approaches, specifically the Iterated Prisoner's Dilemma, offer valuable insights into contemporary conflict analysis.
- The study reaffirms the relevance of modeling strategic interactions in understanding political violence.
- Findings emphasize the importance of territorial dynamics and attack patterns in conflict evolution.
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