Machine Learning of Cardiac Anatomy and the Risk of New-Onset Atrial Fibrillation After TAVR

New-onset atrial fibrillation (NOAF) occurs in 5% to 15% of patients who undergo transfemoral transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR). Cardiac imaging has been underutilized to predict NOAF following TAVR.

The objective of this analysis was to compare and assess standard, manual echocardiographic and cardiac computed tomography (cCT) measurements as well as machine learning-derived cCT measurements of left atrial volume index and epicardial adipose tissue as risk factors for NOAF following TAVR.

The study included 1,385 patients undergoing elective, transfemoral TAVR for severe, symptomatic aortic stenosis. Each patient had standard and machine learning-derived measurements of left atrial volume and epicardial adipose tissue from cardiac computed tomography. The outcome of interest was NOAF within 30 days following TAVR. We used a 2-step statistical model including random forest for variable importance ranking, followed by multivariable logistic regression for predictors of highest importance. Model discrimination was assessed by using the C-statistic to compare the performance of the models with and without imaging.

Forty-seven (5.0%) of 935 patients without pre-existing atrial fibrillation (AF) experienced NOAF. Patients with pre-existing AF had the largest left atrial volume index at 76.3 ± 28.6 cm³/m² followed by NOAF at 68.1 ± 26.6 cm³/m² and then no AF at 57.0 ± 21.7 cm³/m² (P < 0.001). Multivariable regression identified the following risk factors in association with NOAF: left atrial volume index ≥76 cm² (OR: 2.538 [95% CI: 1.165-5.531]; P = 0.0191), body mass index <22 kg/m² (OR: 4.064 [95% CI: 1.500-11.008]; P = 0.0058), EATv (OR: 1.007 [95% CI: 1.000-1.014]; P = 0.043), aortic annulus area ≥659 mm² (OR: 6.621 [95% CI: 1.849-23.708]; P = 0.004), and sinotubular junction diameter ≥35 mm (OR: 3.891 [95% CI: 1.040-14.552]; P = 0.0435). The C-statistic of the model was 0.737, compared with 0.646 in a model that excluded imaging variables.

Underlying cardiac structural differences derived from cardiac imaging may be useful in predicting NOAF following transfemoral TAVR, independent of other clinical risk factors.