A Novel Machine Learning Model for Predicting Stroke-Associated Pneumonia After Spontaneous Intracerebral Hemorrhage

Pneumonia is one of the most common complications after spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage (sICH), i.e., stroke-associated pneumonia (SAP). Timely identification of targeted patients is beneficial to reduce poor prognosis. So far, there is no consensus on SAP prediction, and application of existing predictors is limited. The aim of this study was to develop a machine learning model to predict SAP after sICH.

We retrospectively reviewed 748 patients diagnosed with sICH and collected data from 4 dimensions-demographic features, clinical features, medical history, and laboratory tests. Five machine learning algorithms-logistic regression, gradient boosting decision tree, random forest, extreme gradient boosting, and category boosting-were used to build and validate the predictive model. We also applied recursive feature elimination with cross-validation to obtain the best feature combination for each model. Predictive performance was evaluated by area under the receiver operating characteristic curve.

SAP was diagnosed in 237 patients. The model developed by category boosting yielded the most satisfactory outcomes overall with area under the receiver operating characteristic curves in the training set and test set of 0.8307 and 0.8178, respectively.

The incidence of SAP after sICH in our center was 31.68%. Machine learning could potentially provide assistance in the prediction of SAP after sICH.