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Updated: Jun 24, 2025
Digital PCR for Quantifying Circulating MicroRNAs in Acute Myocardial Infarction and Cardiovascular Disease
Published on: July 3, 2018
Prognostic Value of a Multi-mRNA Signature for 1-Year All-Cause Death in Hospitalized Patients With Heart Failure
Yan Gao1, Bowang Chen1, Yi Han1
1National Clinical Research Center for Cardiovascular Diseases, Fuwai Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, National Center for Cardiovascular Diseases, Beijing, China (Y.G., B.C., Y. Han, J. Lu, X. L., A.T., L.Z., B.W., Y. Hong, J. Liu, Y.L., W.B., H.Z., X.Z., J. Li).
Background:
Heart failure with preserved ejection fraction is a major global public health problem, while effective risk stratification tools are still lacking. We sought to construct a multi-mRNA signature to predict 1-year all-cause death.
Methods:
We selected 30 patients with heart failure with preserved ejection fraction who died during 1-year follow-up and 30 who survived in the discovery set. One hundred seventy-one and 120 patients with heart failure with preserved ejection fraction were randomly selected as a test set and a validation set, respectively. We performed mRNA microarrays in all patients.
Results:
We constructed a 5-mRNA signature for predicting 1-year all-cause death. The scores of the 5-mRNA signature were significantly associated with the 1-year risk of all-cause death in both the test set (hazard ratio, 2.72 [95% CI, 1.98-3.74]; P<0.001) and the validation set (hazard ratio, 3.95 [95% CI, 2.40-6.48]; P<0.001). Compared with a reference model, which included sex, ASCEND-HF (Acute Study of Clinical Effectiveness of Nesiritide in Decompensated Heart Failure) score, history of HF and NT-proBNP (N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide), the 5-mRNA signature had a better discrimination capability, with an increased area under the curve from 0.696 to 0.813 in the test set and from 0.712 to 0.848 in the validation set. A composite model integrating the 5-mRNA risk score and variables in the reference model demonstrated an excellent discrimination capability, with an area under the curve of 0.861 (95% CI, 0.784-0.939) in the test set and an area under the curve of 0.859 (95% CI, 0.755-0.963) in the validation set. The net reclassification improvement and integrated discrimination improvement indicated that the composite model significantly improved patient classification compared with the reference model in both sets (P<0.001).
Conclusions:
The 5-mRNA signature is a promising predictive tool for 1-year all-cause death and shows improved prognostic power over the established risk scores and NT-proBNP in patients with heart failure with preserved ejection fraction.
