Spatial targeting of irrigation development and water resource management to mitigate vector-borne disease

Scaling irrigated agriculture is a global strategy to mitigate food insecurity concerns. While expanding irrigated agriculture is critical to meeting food production demands, it is important to consider how these land use and land cover changes (LULCC) may alter the water resources of landscapes and impact the spatiotemporal epidemiology of disease. Here, a generalizable method is presented to inform irrigation development decision-making aimed at increasing crop production through irrigation while simultaneously mitigating malaria risk to surrounding communities. Changes to the spatiotemporal patterns of malaria vector (Anopheles gambiae s.s.) suitability, driven by irrigated agricultural expansion, are presented for Malawi's rainy and dry seasons. The methods presented may be applied to other geographical areas where sufficient irrigation and malaria prevalence data are available. Results show that approximately 8.60% and 1.78% of Malawi is maximally suitable for An. gambiae s.s. breeding in the rainy and dry seasons, respectively. However, the proposed LULCC from irrigated agriculture increases the maximally suitable land area in both seasons: 15.16% (rainy) and 2.17% (dry). Proposed irrigation development sites are analyzed and ranked according to their likelihood of increasing malaria risk for those closest to the schemes. Results illustrate how geospatial information on the anticipated change to the malaria landscape driven by increasing irrigated agricultural extent can assist in altering development plans, amending policies, or reassessing water resource management strategies to mitigate expected changes in malaria risk.