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Bayesian transition models for ordinal longitudinal outcomes
Maximilian D Rohde1, Benjamin French1, Thomas G Stewart2
1Department of Biostatistics, Vanderbilt University School of Medicine, Nashville, Tennessee, USA.
Abstract:
Ordinal longitudinal outcomes are becoming common in clinical research, particularly in the context of COVID-19 clinical trials. These outcomes are information-rich and can increase the statistical efficiency of a study when analyzed in a principled manner. We present Bayesian ordinal transition models as a flexible modeling framework to analyze ordinal longitudinal outcomes. We develop the theory from first principles and provide an application using data from the Adaptive COVID-19 Treatment Trial (ACTT-1) with code examples in R. We advocate that researchers use ordinal transition models to analyze ordinal longitudinal outcomes when appropriate alongside standard methods such as time-to-event modeling.
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