Functional brain connectivity predictors of prospective substance use initiation and their environmental correlates

Early substance use initiation (SUI) places youth at substantially higher risk for later substance use disorders. Furthermore, adolescence is a critical period for the maturation of brain networks, the pace and magnitude of which are susceptible to environmental influences and may shape risk for SUI.

We examined whether patterns of functional brain connectivity during rest (rsFC), measured longitudinally in pre-and-early adolescence, can predict future SUI. In an independent sub-sample, we also tested whether these patterns are associated with key environmental factors, specifically neighborhood pollution and socioeconomic dimensions. We utilized data from the Adolescent Brain Cognitive Development (ABCD) Study^®. SUI was defined as first-time use of at least one full dose of alcohol, nicotine, cannabis, or other drugs. We created a control group (N = 228) of participants without SUI who were matched with the SUI group (N = 233) on age, sex, race/ethnicity, and parental income and education.

Multivariate analysis showed that whole-brain rsFC prior to SUI during 9-10 and 11-12 years of age successfully differentiated the prospective SUI and control groups. This rsFC signature was expressed more at older ages in both groups, suggesting a pattern of accelerated maturation in the SUI group in the years prior to SUI. In an independent sub-sample (N = 2,854) and adjusted for family socioeconomic factors, expression of this rsFC pattern was associated with higher pollution, but not neighborhood disadvantage.

Brain functional connectivity patterns in early adolescence that are linked to accelerated maturation and environmental exposures can predict future SUI in youth.