Frequency-dependent tolerance to aircraft disturbance drastically alters predicted impact on shorebirds

Anthropogenic disturbance of wildlife is increasing globally. Generalizing impacts of disturbance to novel situations is challenging, as the tolerance of animals to human activities varies with disturbance frequency (e.g. due to habituation). Few studies have quantified frequency-dependent tolerance, let alone determined how it affects predictions of disturbance impacts when these are extrapolated over large areas. In a comparative study across a gradient of air traffic intensities, we show that birds nearly always fled (80%) if aircraft were rare, while birds rarely responded (7%) if traffic was frequent. When extrapolating site-specific responses to an entire region, accounting for frequency-dependent tolerance dramatically alters the predicted costs of disturbance: the disturbance map homogenizes with fewer hotspots. Quantifying frequency-dependent tolerance has proven challenging, but we propose that (i) ignoring it causes extrapolations of disturbance impacts from single sites to be unreliable, and (ii) it can reconcile published idiosyncratic species- or source-specific disturbance responses.