Modification of Risk for All-Cause and Cardiovascular Disease-Related Mortality with Changes in the Body Mass Index...

Existing evidence evaluating the impact of change in body mass index (BMI) on the risk of all-cause and cardiovascular disease (CVD)-related mortality in older people is limited and inconsistent. This population-based cohort study evaluated the association of changes in BMI over time with all-cause and CVD-related mortality in older adults.

We recruited 55,351 adults aged over 65 years between 2006 and 2011 from Taipei Elderly Health Examination Program who underwent repeated annual health examinations at 3.2-year intervals and were followed up for mortality over 5.5 years. Cox proportional hazard and Fine-Gray sub-distribution hazard models with death from non-CVD causes as the competing risk were used to determine the impact of changes in BMI status on the risk of all-cause or CVD-related mortality, respectively.

Over 227,967 person-years of follow-up, 4,054 participants died, including 940 (23.2%) CVD-related deaths. After adjusting for other covariates, >10% decrease in BMI was significantly associated with a higher risk of all-cause (adjusted hazard ratio [AHR] = 1.93; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.74-2.13) and CVD-related mortality (AHR = 1.96; 95% CI: 1.60-2.40), compared with stable BMI. Sensitivity analysis showed that a >10% decrease in BMI was significantly associated with a high risk of all-cause and CVD-related mortality in participants with normal weight, underweight, overweight, or obesity at baseline.

Older adults with >10% decrease in BMI are at high risk of all-cause and CVD-related mortality. Our findings suggest that older individuals experiencing a substantial reduction in BMI should undergo a thorough evaluation to minimize the risks associated with mortality.