Potential of Progressive and Disruptive Innovation-Driven Cost Reductions of Green Hydrogen Production

Green hydrogen from water electrolysis is a key driver for energy and industrial decarbonization. The prediction of the future green hydrogen cost reduction is required for investment and policy-making purposes but is complicated due to a lack of data, incomplete accounting for costs, and difficulty justifying trend predictions. A new AI-assisted data-driven prediction model is developed for an in-depth analysis of the current and future levelized costs of green hydrogen, driven by both progressive and disruptive innovations. The model uses natural language processing to gather data and generate trends for the technological development of key aspects of electrolyzer technology. Through an uncertainty analysis, green hydrogen costs have been shown to likely reach the key target of <$2.5 kg^-1 by 2030 via progressive innovations, and beyond this point, disruptive technological developments are required to affect significantly further decease cost. Additionally, the global distribution of green hydrogen costs has been calculated. This work creates a comprehensive analysis of the levelized cost of green hydrogen, including the important balance of plant components, both now and as electrolyzer technology develops, and offers a likely prediction for how the costs will develop over time.