Phase synchronization between culture and climate forcing
Axel Timmermann1,2, Abdul Wasay1,2, Pasquale Raia3
1IBS Center for Climate Physics , Busan, South Korea.
Proceedings. Biological Sciences
|June 12, 2024
Summary
Human cultural innovation drives population growth and resource depletion. A model shows this can lead to boom/bust cycles and potential collapse, especially with climate change.
Area of Science:
- Anthropology
- Ecology
- Mathematical Modeling
Background:
- Human cultural innovations have historically enhanced survival and adaptation.
- This led to population growth, cumulative cultural learning, and resource depletion.
- The Anthropocene may see resource decline and planetary boundary transgression, potentially reversing population growth.
Purpose of the Study:
- To model the coupled dynamics of cultural learning, population growth, and resource depletion.
- To investigate the impact of environmental change and climate forcing on these dynamics.
- To assess long-term human population resilience.
Main Methods:
- Developed a simple stochastic consumer/resource mathematical model.
- Simulated boom/bust cycles of population and resources.
- Incorporated periodic climate forcing into the model.
Main Results:
- Without climate forcing, slow resource recovery predicts long-term global population collapse.
- With climate forcing, cultural innovation and population growth can synchronize nonlinearly with climate.
- Model simulates boom/bust cycles from subsistence to resource exploitation and decline.
Conclusions:
- Sociodemographic feedback loops driven by cultural innovation can lead to unsustainable resource exploitation.
- Climate forcing can interact with cultural and population dynamics, potentially leading to synchronized collapse.
- Findings are relevant to understanding past anthropological records and future human resilience.
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