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Axel Timmermann1,2, Abdul Wasay1,2, Pasquale Raia3

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Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

Human cultural innovation drives population growth and resource depletion. A model shows this can lead to boom/bust cycles and potential collapse, especially with climate change.

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Area of Science:

  • Anthropology
  • Ecology
  • Mathematical Modeling

Background:

  • Human cultural innovations have historically enhanced survival and adaptation.
  • This led to population growth, cumulative cultural learning, and resource depletion.
  • The Anthropocene may see resource decline and planetary boundary transgression, potentially reversing population growth.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To model the coupled dynamics of cultural learning, population growth, and resource depletion.
  • To investigate the impact of environmental change and climate forcing on these dynamics.
  • To assess long-term human population resilience.

Main Methods:

  • Developed a simple stochastic consumer/resource mathematical model.
  • Simulated boom/bust cycles of population and resources.
  • Incorporated periodic climate forcing into the model.

Main Results:

  • Without climate forcing, slow resource recovery predicts long-term global population collapse.
  • With climate forcing, cultural innovation and population growth can synchronize nonlinearly with climate.
  • Model simulates boom/bust cycles from subsistence to resource exploitation and decline.

Conclusions:

  • Sociodemographic feedback loops driven by cultural innovation can lead to unsustainable resource exploitation.
  • Climate forcing can interact with cultural and population dynamics, potentially leading to synchronized collapse.
  • Findings are relevant to understanding past anthropological records and future human resilience.