Assessment of the occurrence of the second generation of Mythimna loreyi Duponchel (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) using temperature-dependent developmental and oviposition models

A significant crop pest, Mythimna loreyi, migrates annually to Korea and has been frequently observed in rice and corn fields. However, the phenology of this pest, particularly in relation to its ecological interactions and host crop seasons in Korea, remains poorly understood. This study aims to clarify the timing of the second generation of M. loreyi in Korea to enhance pest management strategies. To achieve this, we developed temperature-dependent models for developmental and ovipositional rates, studying these processes across five constant temperatures (15, 20, 25, 30, and 35°C). Our models, which showed a high correlation with observed data (r2 ≥ 0.93), include a theoretical approach that combines the developmental variation of immatures with the necessary degree-days for 50% egg laying and complete egg development. These predictions allow for the forecasting of the second generation's occurrence, with relatively small deviations (one to three days) observed at two different field sites. The insights from this study are critical for both understanding the ecology of M. loreyi and for informing practical management decisions, such as optimal placement of barriers to prevent immigration and strategies for controlling local populations.