Environmental variables driving horseshoe crab spawning behavior in a microtidal lagoon in Florida

The timing of American horseshoe crab (Limulus polyphemus) spawning behavior along the coast of Florida (United States) is generally associated with the highest tides during the spring and fall lunar cycles. All Florida estuaries support horseshoe crab populations, but tidal characteristics vary markedly among locations, which may influence the timing of horseshoe crab spawning behavior. The Indian River Lagoon is a large microtidal estuary on Florida's east coast. Given the microtidal nature of the lagoon, it is unclear which environmental factors affect horseshoe spawning. In 2019, volunteers of Florida Horseshoe Crab Watch conducted daily surveys at two sites in the northern Indian River Lagoon during peak spawning months (February-April). During each survey, volunteers counted all spawning horseshoe crabs and recorded environmental variables, including water temperature, air temperature, wind speed, wind direction, salinity, and tide height. We developed a suite of negative-binomial regression models to quantify relationships between the number of spawning horseshoe crabs and environmental factors. Modeling results indicated a positive relationship between onshore wind speed and number of spawning horseshoe crabs. Our study suggests that in the absence of tidal cues, onshore wind speed may be an important driver of horseshoe crab spawning activity in microtidal estuarine systems.