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A Future Growth Model for Building More Housing and Infrastructure with Less Embodied Greenhouse Gas.

Keagan H Rankin1, Shoshanna Saxe1

  • 1Department of Civil & Mineral Engineering, University of Toronto, 35 St George Street, Toronto, Ontario M5S 1A4, Canada.

Environmental Science & Technology
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Meeting housing demand while cutting construction emissions is possible. The Future Infrastructure Growth (FIG) model shows pathways to reduce material emissions for sustainable building and infrastructure development.

Keywords:
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Area of Science:

  • Environmental Science
  • Sustainable Development
  • Urban Planning

Background:

  • Growing global housing demand conflicts with climate change mitigation goals.
  • Construction materials significantly contribute to greenhouse gas emissions.
  • Existing methods struggle to forecast embodied emissions for future infrastructure.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To introduce the Future Infrastructure Growth (FIG) model, a novel method for forecasting embodied emissions.
  • To identify scalable strategies for reducing emissions from new residential and infrastructure construction.
  • To analyze pathways for meeting housing needs while adhering to climate commitments.

Main Methods:

  • Developed the FIG model using open data to quantify emissions of existing neighborhoods as if newly built.
  • Forecasted cradle-to-gate embodied emissions for new residential buildings and linear infrastructure.
  • Applied the model to Canada to assess emissions drivers and reduction strategies up to 2050.

Main Results:

  • Without intervention, Canada faces a 437% overshoot of climate commitments if housing targets are met.
  • Significant embodied emissions stem from current construction norms and material usage.
  • Effective reduction strategies include prioritizing multiunit buildings, advanced design, and material innovation.

Conclusions:

  • Achieving climate targets requires a paradigm shift in construction practices.
  • Near-total reliance on multiunit buildings and best-in-class design is crucial.
  • Improvements in material manufacturing, urban infill, and reduced material consumption are essential for sustainable infrastructure growth.