Empirical analysis of spatial heterogeneity in the development of China's National Fitness Plan

The National Fitness Plan (NFP) is a vital initiative aimed at realizing Healthy China 2030. This study assessed spatial heterogeneity in the NFP development and the socioeconomic factors contributing to this inequality.

Data from 31 administrative regions in 2021 were analyzed using four NFP development metrics. Spatial autocorrelation was evaluated using global Moran's I, followed by global and local regression models for non-random spatial patterns.

National physical fitness exhibited significant clustering (z = 5.403), notably a high-high cluster in East China. The global regression model identified three socioeconomic factors in the geographically weighted regression model: per capita disposable income and the number of public buses positively affected national physical fitness, while general public budget expenditure had a negative impact.

Persistent unequal NFP development is projected due to income disparities in economically backward regions. To promote the NFP effectively, a cost-efficient strategy includes creating 15-minute fitness circles, especially by establishing public sports facilities in Western China communities. These findings inform policy priorities for advancing the NFP towards Healthy China 2030.