Chronic Disease Prediction Using the Common Data Model: Development Study

Chronic disease management is a major health issue worldwide. With the paradigm shift to preventive medicine, disease prediction modeling using machine learning is gaining importance for precise and accurate medical judgement.

This study aimed to develop high-performance prediction models for 4 chronic diseases using the common data model (CDM) and machine learning and to confirm the possibility for the extension of the proposed models.

In this study, 4 major chronic diseases-namely, diabetes, hypertension, hyperlipidemia, and cardiovascular disease-were selected, and a model for predicting their occurrence within 10 years was developed. For model development, the Atlas analysis tool was used to define the chronic disease to be predicted, and data were extracted from the CDM according to the defined conditions. A model for predicting each disease was built with 4 algorithms verified in previous studies, and the performance was compared after applying a grid search.

For the prediction of each disease, we applied 4 algorithms (logistic regression, gradient boosting, random forest, and extreme gradient boosting), and all models show greater than 80% accuracy. As compared to the optimized model's performance, extreme gradient boosting presented the highest predictive performance for the 4 diseases (diabetes, hypertension, hyperlipidemia, and cardiovascular disease) with 80% or greater and from 0.84 to 0.93 in area under the curve standards.

This study demonstrates the possibility for the preemptive management of chronic diseases by predicting the occurrence of chronic diseases using the CDM and machine learning. With these models, the risk of developing major chronic diseases within 10 years can be demonstrated by identifying health risk factors using our chronic disease prediction machine learning model developed with the real-world data-based CDM and National Health Insurance Corporation examination data that individuals can easily obtain.