Pulmonary Tuberculosis Notification Rate Within Shenzhen, China, 2010-2019: Spatial-Temporal Analysis

Area of Science:

• Public Health
• Epidemiology
• Spatial Analysis

Background:

• Pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) is a significant global health challenge.
• Understanding PTB transmission at a granular level is crucial for effective control.
• Limited research exists on street-level PTB clustering patterns.

Purpose of the Study:

• To analyze the temporal and spatial distribution of PTB cases in Shenzhen at the street level.
• To identify high-risk areas and temporal clusters of PTB for targeted interventions.
• To provide data-driven insights for PTB prevention and control strategies in urban settings.

Main Methods:

• Utilized reported PTB case data from Shenzhen (2010-2019).
• Employed time-series, spatial autocorrelation, and spatial-temporal scanning analyses.
• Identified epidemiological characteristics, spatial patterns, and temporal clusters at the street level.

Main Results:

• A total of 58,122 PTB cases were reported between 2010 and 2019.
• The annual PTB notification rate decreased, but cases showed seasonal variations (peaks in late spring/summer).
• Significant spatial clustering was observed, with a primary cluster identified in Nanshan District (Jan 2010-Nov 2012).

Conclusions:

• Identified distinct seasonal patterns and street-level spatial-temporal clusters of PTB in Shenzhen.
• Emphasizes the need to prioritize resources in identified high-risk areas for PTB control.
• Highlights the value of granular spatial analysis for public health interventions.