Parameter identifiability of a within-host SARS-CoV-2 epidemic model
Junyuan Yang1,2, Sijin Wu2, Xuezhi Li3
1Complex Systems Research Center, Shanxi University, Taiyuan, 030006, China.
This study identifies key parameters in a SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) model using DAISY and simulations. Reducing viral replication and infectiousness are crucial for controlling COVID-19 spread.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Mathematical Modeling
- Virology
Background:
- Understanding SARS-CoV-2 dynamics is crucial for effective pandemic control.
- Parameter identification is essential for refining epidemic models.
Purpose of the Study:
- To assess the structural identifiability of parameters in a within-host SARS-CoV-2 model.
- To analyze model parameters using Monte Carlo simulations and sensitivity analysis.
Main Methods:
- Utilized the DAISY algorithm for structural identifiability analysis.
- Performed Monte Carlo simulations for practical parameter analysis.
- Conducted sensitivity analysis to determine effective control measures.
Main Results:
- Identified key parameters within the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic model.
- Sensitivity analysis highlighted the impact of specific parameters on disease dissemination.
- Demonstrated that reducing viral replication and infectious period are effective control strategies.
Conclusions:
- The study provides insights into parameter identifiability for SARS-CoV-2 models.
- Findings support targeted interventions to mitigate COVID-19 transmission.
- Model-based analysis is vital for informing public health strategies.
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