Predicting global geographical distribution and latitudinal suitability gradient for light Brown apple moth

Area of Science:

• Ecology
• Invasive Species Biology
• Biogeography

Background:

• The light brown apple moth (Epiphyas postvittana) is an Australian native pest with a polyphagous feeding habit.
• Increasing interceptions highlight the need for robust risk assessments to prevent new invasions.

Purpose of the Study:

• To conduct a comprehensive global invasion risk assessment for the light brown apple moth (LBAM).
• To identify regions vulnerable to LBAM establishment under current and future climate scenarios.

Main Methods:

• Utilized an optimized MaxEnt model incorporating 19 bioclimatic variables and elevation.
• Analyzed current and projected future climate data (SSP5-8.5 for the 2050s).

Main Results:

• Minimum temperature of the coldest month (bio6), precipitation of the driest month (bio14), and precipitation of the coldest quarter (bio19) were key distribution drivers.
• Identified susceptible regions including the southeastern US, southern Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay, Chile, and Western Europe.
• Projected range expansion in Western Europe and the US under future climate change, particularly at mid-high latitudes.

Conclusions:

• Climate change is predicted to increase LBAM habitat suitability in mid-high latitude regions.
• Proactive implementation of inspection and quarantine measures is vital for at-risk countries, especially those with trade links to affected areas.