A one-year relapse prediction model for acute ischemic stroke (AIS) based on clinical big data

To develop and evaluate a nomogram prediction model for recurrence of acute ischemic stroke (AIS) within one year.

Patients with AIS treated at the second affiliated hospital of Xuzhou Medical University from August 2017 to July 2019 were enrolled. Clinical data such as demographic data, risk factors, laboratory tests, TOAST etiological types, MRI features, and treatment methods were collected. Cox regression analysis was done to determine the parameters for entering the nomogram model. The performance of the model was estimated by receiver operating characteristic curves, decision curve analysis, calibration curves, and C-index.

A total of 645 patients were enrolled in this study. Side of hemisphere (SOH, Bilateral, HR = 0.35, 95 % CI = 0.15-0.84, p = 0.018), homocysteine (HCY, HR = 1.38, 95 % CI = 1.29-1.47, p < 0.001), c-reactive protein (CRP, HR = 1.04, 95 % CI = 1.01-1.07, p = 0.013) and stroke severity (SS, HR = 3.66, 95 % CI = 2.04-6.57, p < 0.001) were independent risk factors. The C-index of the nomogram model was 0.872 (se = 0.016). The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC)curve at one-year recurrence was 0.900. Calibration curve, decision curve analysis showed good performance of the nomogram. The cutoff value for low or high risk of recurrence score was 1.73.

The nomogram model for stroke recurrence within one year developed in this study performed well. This useful tool can be used in clinical practice to provide important guidance to healthcare professionals.