Prognostic Factors for Recurrent Glioma: A Population-Based Analysis

Area of Science:

• Neuro-oncology
• Cancer Prognostics
• Radiotherapy

Background:

• Recurrent glioma presents a significant challenge with poor overall survival (OS).
• The roles of radionecrosis and prognostic factors in recurrent glioma remain debated.
• Effective predictive models are crucial for guiding clinical management.

Purpose of the Study:

• To identify independent prognostic factors for recurrent glioma after radiotherapy.
• To develop and validate a nomogram for predicting recurrent glioma risk and prognosis.
• To stratify patients into distinct risk groups for improved clinical decision-making.

Main Methods:

• Screening of recurrent glioma patients who received radiotherapy and surgery.
• Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses to determine prognostic factors.
• Construction and validation of a nomogram using C-index, ROC analysis, DCA, and Kaplan-Meier curves.

Main Results:

• World Health Organization (WHO) grade and gliosis percentage were identified as independent prognostic factors.
• The nomogram demonstrated high predictive performance with a C-index of 0.682.
• Patients were successfully stratified into low-risk and high-risk groups based on overall survival.

Conclusions:

• WHO grade and gliosis percentage are significant prognostic factors for recurrent glioma with radionecrosis.
• A validated nomogram based on these factors can visually predict patient prognosis.
• This model facilitates individualized clinical decisions and risk stratification for recurrent glioma patients.