Development and validation of a predictive model for severe white matter hyperintensity with obesity

The purpose of the present study was to identify predictors of severe white matter hyperintensity (WMH) with obesity (SWO), and to build a prediction model for screening obese people with severe WMH without Nuclear Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) examination.

From September 2020 to October 2021, 650 patients with WMH were recruited consecutively. The subjects were divided into two groups, SWO group and non-SWO group. Univariate and Logistic regression analysis were was applied to explore the potential predictors of SWO. The Youden index method was adopted to determine the best cut-off value in the establishment of the prediction model of SWO. Each parameter had two options, low and high. The score table of the prediction model and nomogram based on the logistic regression were constructed. Of the 650 subjects, 487 subjects (75%) were randomly assigned to the training group and 163 subjects (25%) to the validation group. By resampling the area under the curve (AUC) of the subject's operating characteristics and calibration curves 1,000 times, nomogram performance was verified. A decision curve analysis (DCA) was used to evaluate the nomogram's clinical usefulness. By resampling the area under the curve (AUC) of the subject's operating characteristics and calibration curves 1,000 times, nomogram performance was verified. A decision curve analysis (DCA) was used to evaluate the nomogram's clinical usefulness.

Logistic regression demonstrated that hypertension, uric acid (UA), complement 3 (C3) and Interleukin 8 (IL-8) were independent risk factors for SWO. Hypertension, UA, C3, IL-8, folic acid (FA), fasting C-peptide (FCP) and eosinophil could be used to predict the occurrence of SWO in the prediction models, with a good diagnostic performance, Areas Under Curves (AUC) of Total score was 0.823 (95% CI: 0.760-0.885, p < 0.001), sensitivity of 60.0%, specificity of 91.4%. In the development group, the nomogram's AUC (C statistic) was 0.829 (95% CI: 0.760-0.899), while in the validation group, it was 0.835 (95% CI: 0.696, 0.975). In both the development and validation groups, the calibration curves following 1,000 bootstraps showed a satisfactory fit between the observed and predicted probabilities. DCA showed that the nomogram had great clinical utility.

Hypertension, UA, C3, IL-8, FA, FCP and eosinophil models had the potential to predict the incidence of SWO. When the total score of the model exceeded 9 points, the risk of SWO would increase significantly, and the nomogram enabled visualization of the patient's WMH risk. The application prospect of our models mainly lied in the convenient screening of SWO without MRI examination in order to detect SWO and control the WMH hazards early.