On the prospects of longtermism

Area of Science:

• Ethics
• Future Studies
• Moral Philosophy

Background:

• Longtermism posits the potential for significant positive impact on the long-term future.
• William MacAskill's arguments in "What We Owe the Future" support optimistic longtermism.
• The concept of values 'locking in' is central to longtermist arguments.

Purpose of the Study:

• To critically evaluate two key arguments for optimistic longtermism.
• To challenge the assumption that human actions predominantly benefit the long-term future.
• To assess the likelihood of positive values permanently shaping the future.

Main Methods:

• Philosophical argumentation and ethical analysis.
• Examination of human motivations and the practicalities of action.
• Analysis of the conditions required for value lock-in.

Main Results:

• Human actions are more practically prone to causing harm than benefit, counteracting positive intentions.
• Accidental consequences and side-effects of self-interested actions are likely to be harmful.
• Without moral enhancement, human partiality makes the permanent lock-in of positive values improbable.

Conclusions:

• Optimism regarding longtermism requires a more nuanced understanding of human action and motivation.
• The ease of causing harm poses a significant risk to achieving a positive long-term future.
• Moral enhancement may be a prerequisite for securing beneficial long-term value lock-in.