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Area of Science:

  • Cognitive Psychology
  • Decision Science
  • Risk Communication

Background:

  • Accurate interpretation of probabilities is crucial for decision making under risk.
  • Visual aids like icon arrays are used to improve probability understanding, but can lead to overestimation.
  • Previous research identified icon arrangement and outcome severity as potential factors in probability overestimation.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate whether icon arrangement and outcome severity interact or additively influence probability overestimation.
  • To examine the impact of these factors on the absolute estimation of probabilities presented in icon arrays.

Main Methods:

  • Two studies involving 1171 participants were conducted.
  • The arrangement of highlighted icons and the severity of represented outcomes were manipulated.
  • Participants' estimations of probabilities presented via icon arrays were analyzed.

Main Results:

  • Both icon arrangement and outcome severity independently contributed to probability overestimation.
  • The effects were additive, not interactive.
  • Overestimation was most pronounced with random icon arrangements and severe outcomes.

Conclusions:

  • Confirms and extends previous findings on probability overestimation using icon arrays.
  • Demonstrates an additive effect of icon arrangement and outcome severity on perceptual bias.
  • Highlights the importance of considering these factors in risk-related communication design.