Real world predictors of response and 24-month survival in high-grade TP53-mutated myeloid neoplasms

Current therapies for high-grade TP53-mutated myeloid neoplasms (≥10% blasts) do not offer a meaningful survival benefit except allogeneic stem cell transplantation in the minority who achieve a complete response to first line therapy (CR1). To identify reliable pre-therapy predictors of complete response to first-line therapy (CR1) and outcomes, we assembled a cohort of 242 individuals with TP53-mutated myeloid neoplasms and ≥10% blasts with well-annotated clinical, molecular and pathology data. Key outcomes examined were CR1 & 24-month survival (OS24). In this elderly cohort (median age 68.2 years) with 74.0% receiving frontline non-intensive regimens (hypomethylating agents +/- venetoclax), the overall cohort CR1 rate was 25.6% (50/195). We additionally identified several pre-therapy factors predictive of inferior CR1 including male gender (P = 0.026), ≥2 autosomal monosomies (P < 0.001), -17/17p (P = 0.011), multi-hit TP53 allelic state (P < 0.001) and CUX1 co-alterations (P = 0.010). In univariable analysis of the entire cohort, inferior OS24 was predicated by ≥2 monosomies (P = 0.004), TP53 VAF > 25% (P = 0.002), TP53 splice junction mutations (P = 0.007) and antecedent treated myeloid neoplasm (P = 0.001). In addition, mutations/deletions in CUX1, U2AF1, EZH2, TET2, CBL, or KRAS ('EPI6' signature) predicted inferior OS24 (HR = 2.0 [1.5-2.8]; P < 0.0001). In a subgroup analysis of HMA +/-Ven treated individuals (N = 144), TP53 VAF and monosomies did not impact OS24. A risk score for HMA +/-Ven treated individuals incorporating three pre-therapy predictors including TP53 splice junction mutations, EPI6 and antecedent treated myeloid neoplasm stratified 3 prognostic distinct groups: intermediate, intermediate-poor, and poor with significantly different median (12.8, 6.0, 4.3 months) and 24-month (20.9%, 5.7%, 0.5%) survival (P < 0.0001). For the first time, in a seemingly monolithic high-risk cohort, our data identifies several baseline factors that predict response and 24-month survival.