Reliability and Validity of Predicted Performance in the Severe-Intensity Domain From the 3-Minute All-Out Running...

Area of Science:

• Exercise Physiology
• Sports Science
• Running Performance Analysis

Background:

• Accurate prediction of running performance is crucial for training.
• The 3-minute all-out running test (3MT) is a potential tool for assessing severe-intensity domain performance.
• Reliability and validity of 3MT-derived predictions require thorough investigation.

Purpose of the Study:

• To evaluate the reliability and validity of the predicted distance-time relationship from the 3-minute all-out running test (3MT).
• To assess the accuracy of predicting 1200m and 3600m times using 3MT-derived critical speed (CS) and distance above CS (D').

Main Methods:

• Twelve runners completed two 3MTs on a 400m track.
• Global Positioning System (GPS) data estimated critical speed (CS) and distance above CS (D').
• Predicted and actual times for 1200m (T1200) and 3600m (T3600) were compared using reliability and correlation analyses.

Main Results:

• High reliability (ICC > .95) was observed for CS, T1200, and T3600 estimates from the 3MT.
• Distance above CS (D') showed poor reliability (ICC = .55).
• 3MT predictions correlated strongly with actual T1200 (r = .85–.87) and T3600 (r = .82–.91), with systematic underestimation for T3600.

Conclusions:

• The 3MT provides a reliable basis for predicting distance-time relationships, suitable for monitoring training adaptations.
• Individual performance potential predictions require caution due to substantial random error and systematic bias in longer distance predictions.
• Despite limitations in D' reliability, the 3MT offers a valuable tool for assessing running performance trends.