Defining Worst-Case-Scenario Thresholds in Soccer: Intensity Versus Volume

Area of Science:

• Sports Science
• Exercise Physiology
• Soccer Performance Analysis

Background:

• Soccer demands peak physical exertion, necessitating precise measurement of high-intensity activities.
• Worst-case scenario (WCS) analysis quantifies peak physical demands, but its application in soccer requires further investigation.
• Understanding variations in peak demands based on playing level and position is crucial for effective training.

Purpose of the Study:

• To describe worst-case scenario (WCS) demands for total distance (TD) and high-speed running (HSR) in soccer.
• To quantify the time spent above 80% and 90% of WCS for TD and HSR.
• To analyze how WCS and time above thresholds differ between first team and U19 players, and across playing positions.

Main Methods:

• Collected match data from 31 players at a professional Italian soccer club using microtechnology devices.
• Categorized players by playing position (center backs, fullbacks, midfielders, forwards) and team level (first team, U19).
• Calculated WCS using 1-minute rolling averages and determined time spent above 80% and 90% of WCS for TD and HSR.

Main Results:

• U19 players showed higher HSR WCS (∼63 m·min⁻¹) than the first team (∼56 m·min⁻¹).
• Midfielders had the highest TD WCS (∼208 m·min⁻¹), and forwards had the highest HSR WCS (∼70 m·min⁻¹).
• First team players spent more time above 80% and 90% of TD WCS; midfielders exceeded 80% TD WCS longer, while forwards exceeded 80% HSR WCS longer.

Conclusions:

• Worst-case scenario (WCS) alone may not fully represent soccer match intensity.
• Time spent above specific high-intensity thresholds provides valuable insights into performance differences between levels and positions.
• Practitioners should integrate both WCS and time-above-threshold data for tailored training prescriptions that account for playing roles.