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Can trade and security alliance help reduce interstate war?

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Chen's Extended Dependence Theory, which challenges liberal peace theory, was tested for its effect on preventing war. Statistical analysis found no evidence that Extended Dependence reduces the risk of war, suggesting a need for further research into economic ties and security institutions.

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Area of Science:

  • International political economy
  • International relations theory
  • Conflict studies

Background:

  • The gap between theory and empirical research impedes scientific progress in international political economy.
  • Chen's Extended Dependence Theory offers an alternative to liberal peace theory but lacks empirical validation.
  • Existing research on trade and peace often focuses on disputes short of war, neglecting severe conflict.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To empirically test Chen's Extended Dependence Theory against the most severe form of conflict: war.
  • To determine if Extended Dependence has a peace-building effect that prevents interstate war.
  • To address the limitations of prior empirical analyses that focused on less intense militarized disputes.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized statistical tests to analyze the relationship between Extended Dependence and the occurrence of war.
  • Employed substantive significance testing to evaluate the practical impact of the Extended Dependence variable.
  • Focused empirical validation on war as the most critical measure of conflict severity.

Main Results:

  • No statistically significant peace-building effect was found for Extended Dependence in preventing war.
  • The Extended Dependence variable demonstrated a ceiling effect, indicating limited explanatory power for war.
  • Findings challenge the applicability of Extended Dependence Theory to understanding and preventing large-scale conflict.

Conclusions:

  • Chen's Extended Dependence Theory does not appear to reduce the risk of war based on current empirical evidence.
  • The interaction between economic ties and security institutions in mitigating severe conflict remains an open question.
  • Future research should investigate why economic interdependence and security alliances do not collectively deter the most destructive forms of conflict.