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ern: An R package to estimate the effective reproduction number using clinical and wastewater surveillance data
David Champredon1, Irena Papst1, Warsame Yusuf1
1Public Health Risk Sciences Division, Public Health Agency of Canada, National Microbiology Laboratory, Guelph, Ontario, Canada.
Abstract:
The effective reproduction number, , is an important epidemiological metric used to assess the state of an epidemic, as well as the effectiveness of public health interventions undertaken in response. When is above one, it indicates that new infections are increasing, and thus the epidemic is growing, while an is below one indicates that new infections are decreasing, and so the epidemic is under control. There are several established software packages that are readily available to statistically estimate using clinical surveillance data. However, there are comparatively few accessible tools for estimating from pathogen wastewater concentration, a surveillance data stream that cemented its utility during the COVID-19 pandemic. We present the package ern that aims to perform the estimation of the effective reproduction number from real-world wastewater or aggregated clinical surveillance data in a user-friendly way.

