Change in water column total chlorophyll-a in the Mediterranean revealed by satellite observation

Chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) is a crucial pigment in algae and macrophytes, which makes the concentration of total Chl-a in the water column (total Chl-a) an essential indicator for estimating the primary productivity and carbon cycle of the ocean. Integrating the Chl-a concentration at different depths (Chl-a profile) is an important way to obtain the total Chl-a. However, due to limited cost and technology, it is difficult to measure Chl-a profiles directly in a spatially continuous and high-resolution way. In this study, we proposed an integrated strategy model that combines three different machine learning methods (PSO-BP, random forest and gradient boosting) to predict the Chl-a profile in the Mediterranean by using several sea surface variables (photosynthetically active radiation, spectral irradiance, sea surface temperature, wind speed, euphotic depth and KD490) and subsurface variables (mixed layer depth) observed by or estimated from satellite and BGC-Argo float observations. After accuracy estimation, the integrated model was utilized to generate the time series total Chl-a in the Mediterranean from 2003 to 2021. By analysing the time series results, it was found that seasonal fluctuation contributed the most to the variation in total Chl-a. In addition, there was an overall decreasing trend in the Mediterranean phytoplankton biomass, with the total Chl- decreasing at a rate of 0.048 mg/m² per year, which was inferred to be related to global warming and precipitation reduction based on comprehensive analysis with sea surface temperature and precipitation data.