Comparative experiment to select water quality parameters for modelling the survival of Escherichia coli in lakes

Numerical health risk assessment models have been developed to describe faecal contamination of water using Escherichia coli as an indicator bacterium. Although many previously established numerical models for E. coli in aquatic environments have only considered the effects of one or two water quality parameters such as temperature and sunlight, it is difficult to simulate E. coli survival with only one or two parameters because the aquatic environment is a complex system. This study conducted a series of comparative experiments to select water quality parameters that should be preferentially considered in a numerical model for E. coli survival in lakes. The parameters considered were temperature, pH, dissolved oxygen (DO), total dissolved solids (TDS), suspended solids (SS), coexisting microbes, and light intensity. In the laboratory experiments, the survival of E. coli was observed by controlling two of these seven parameters, and the effects of these parameters on the rate of E. coli population change were statistically compared. Consequently, light intensity affected the survival of E. coli most significantly, followed by the presence of coexisting microbes, temperature, pH, and TDS. However, DO and SS had smaller effects on survival than other parameters. High-impact interactions on E. coli survival were observed between temperature and TDS and temperature and coexisting microbes. These results suggest that existing numerical models for simulating E. coli survival in lakes should be modified to consider the independent and interactive effects of multiple parameters such as sunlight, coexisting microbes, temperature, pH, and TDS.