External Validation and Further Exploration of Fall Prediction Models Based on Questionnaires and Daily-Life Trunk...

Ambulatory measurements of trunk accelerations can provide valuable insight into the amount and quality of daily life activities. Such information has been used to create models to identify individuals at high risk of falls. However, external validation of such prediction models is lacking, yet crucial for clinical implementation. We externally validated 3 previously described fall prediction models. Complete questionnaires and 1-week trunk acceleration data were obtained from 263 community-dwelling people (mean age 71.8 years, 68.1% female). To validate models, we first used the coefficients and optimal cutoffs from the original cohort, then recalibrated the original models, as well as optimized parameters based on our new cohort. Among all participants, 39.9% experienced falls during a 6-month follow-up. All models showed poor precision (0.20-0.49), poor sensitivity (0.32-0.58), and good specificity (0.45-0.89). Calibration of the original models had limited effect on model performance. Using coefficients and cutoffs optimized on the external cohort also had limited benefits. Lastly, the odds ratios in our cohort were different from those in the original cohort, which indicated that gait characteristics, except for the index of harmonicity ML (medial-lateral direction), were not statistically associated with falls. Fall risk prediction in our cohort was not as effective as in the original cohort. Recalibration as well as optimized model parameters resulted in a limited increase in accuracy. Fall prediction models are highly specific to the cohort studied. This highlights the need for large representative cohorts, preferably with an external validation cohort.