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Climate change and population persistence in a hibernating marsupial
Roberto F Nespolo1,2,3, Julian F Quintero-Galvis1,2, Francisco E Fontúrbel2,4
1Instituto de Ciencias Ambientales y Evolutivas, Universidad Austral de Chile , Valdivia, Chile.
Proceedings. Biological Sciences
|June 26, 2024
Summary
Climate change threatens hibernating mammals by altering winter temperatures crucial for survival. Models predict declines in some populations, while others may persist in cooler environments.
Area of Science:
- Ecology
- Climate Change Biology
- Physiology
Background:
- Climate change poses physiological challenges to organisms, exceeding adaptation rates.
- Hibernating mammals are vulnerable to temperature shifts impacting winter survival and energy demands.
- Torpor arousal due to exceeding temperature thresholds increases energy needs when food is scarce.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop a numerical model for predicting energy consumption in heterothermic species.
- To model the winter survival of hibernating mammals under various climate change scenarios.
- To assess the impact of climate change on the monito del monte (Dromiciops) populations.
Main Methods:
- Parameterization of a numerical model for energy consumption in heterothermic species.
- Modeling winter survival across four Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) climate change scenarios.
- Utilizing the monito del monte (Dromiciops) as a model species for South American hibernators.
Main Results:
- Northern and coastal populations of Dromiciops bozinovici are predicted to decline.
- These populations face reduced winter survival due to insufficient cold days and habitat fragmentation.
- Andean and highland populations in cooler environments are projected to persist and thrive.
Conclusions:
- Simple physiological models are essential for predicting short-term species responses to climate warming.
- Widespread hibernating mammal populations globally may face similar climate-driven survival challenges.
- Conservation strategies must consider regional climate projections and habitat-specific vulnerabilities.
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