CD34+ cell yield among healthy donors: Large-scale model development and validation

Successful engraftment in hematopoietic stem cell transplantation necessitates the collection of an adequate dose of CD34+ cells. Thus, the precise estimation of CD34+ cells harvested via apheresis is critical. Current CD34+ cell yield prediction models have limited reproducibility. This study aims to develop a more reliable and universally applicable model by utilizing a large dataset, enhancing yield predictions, optimizing the collection process, and improving clinical outcomes.

A secondary analysis was conducted using the Center for International Blood and Marrow Transplant Research database, involving data from over 17 000 healthy donors who underwent filgrastim-mobilized hematopoietic progenitor cell apheresis. Linear regression, gradient boosting regressor, and logistic regression classification models were employed to predict CD34+ cell yield.

Key predictors identified include pre-apheresis CD34+ cell count, weight, age, sex, and blood volume processed. The linear regression model achieved a coefficient of determination (R²) value of 0.66 and a correlation coefficient (r) of 0.81. The gradient boosting regressor model demonstrated marginally improved results with an R² value of 0.67 and an r value of 0.82. The logistic regression classification model achieved a predictive accuracy of 96% at the 200 × 10⁶ CD34+ cell count threshold. At thresholds of 400, 600, 800, and 1000 × 10⁶ CD34+ cell count, the accuracies were 88%, 83%, 83%, and 88%, respectively. The model demonstrated a high area under the receiver operator curve scores ranging from 0.90 to 0.93.

This study introduces advanced predictive models for estimating CD34+ cell yield, with the logistic regression classification model demonstrating remarkable accuracy and practical utility.