Predictive ability of multi-population genomic prediction methods of phenotypes for reproduction traits in Chinese...

Multi-population genomic prediction can rapidly expand the size of the reference population and improve genomic prediction ability. Machine learning (ML) algorithms have shown advantages in single-population genomic prediction of phenotypes. However, few studies have explored the effectiveness of ML methods for multi-population genomic prediction.

In this study, 3720 Yorkshire pigs from Austria and four breeding farms in China were used, and single-trait genomic best linear unbiased prediction (ST-GBLUP), multitrait GBLUP (MT-GBLUP), Bayesian Horseshoe (BayesHE), and three ML methods (support vector regression (SVR), kernel ridge regression (KRR) and AdaBoost.R2) were compared to explore the optimal method for joint genomic prediction of phenotypes of Chinese and Austrian pigs through 10 replicates of fivefold cross-validation. In this study, we tested the performance of different methods in two scenarios: (i) including only one Austrian population and one Chinese pig population that were genetically linked based on principal component analysis (PCA) (designated as the "two-population scenario") and (ii) adding reference populations that are unrelated based on PCA to the above two populations (designated as the "multi-population scenario"). Our results show that, the use of MT-GBLUP in the two-population scenario resulted in an improvement of 7.1% in predictive ability compared to ST-GBLUP, while the use of SVR and KKR yielded improvements in predictive ability of 4.5 and 5.3%, respectively, compared to MT-GBLUP. SVR and KRR also yielded lower mean square errors (MSE) in most population and trait combinations. In the multi-population scenario, improvements in predictive ability of 29.7, 24.4 and 11.1% were obtained compared to ST-GBLUP when using, respectively, SVR, KRR, and AdaBoost.R2. However, compared to MT-GBLUP, the potential of ML methods to improve predictive ability was not demonstrated.

Our study demonstrates that ML algorithms can achieve better prediction performance than multitrait GBLUP models in multi-population genomic prediction of phenotypes when the populations have similar genetic backgrounds; however, when reference populations that are unrelated based on PCA are added, the ML methods did not show a benefit. When the number of populations increased, only MT-GBLUP improved predictive ability in both validation populations, while the other methods showed improvement in only one population.