Radiogenomics-Based Risk Prediction of Glioblastoma Multiforme with Clinical Relevance

Glioblastoma multiforme (GBM)is the most common and aggressive primary brain tumor. Although temozolomide (TMZ)-based radiochemotherapy improves overall GBM patients' survival, it also increases the frequency of false positive post-treatment magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) assessments for tumor progression. Pseudo-progression (PsP) is a treatment-related reaction with an increased contrast-enhancing lesion size at the tumor site or resection margins miming tumor recurrence on MRI. The accurate and reliable prognostication of GBM progression is urgently needed in the clinical management of GBM patients. Clinical data analysis indicates that the patients with PsP had superior overall and progression-free survival rates. In this study, we aimed to develop a prognostic model to evaluate the tumor progression potential of GBM patients following standard therapies. We applied a dictionary learning scheme to obtain imaging features of GBM patients with PsP or true tumor progression (TTP) from the Wake dataset. Based on these radiographic features, we conducted a radiogenomics analysis to identify the significantly associated genes. These significantly associated genes were used as features to construct a 2YS (2-year survival rate) logistic regression model. GBM patients were classified into low- and high-survival risk groups based on the individual 2YS scores derived from this model. We tested our model using an independent The Cancer Genome Atlas Program (TCGA) dataset and found that 2YS scores were significantly associated with the patient's overall survival. We used two cohorts of the TCGA data to train and test our model. Our results show that the 2YS scores-based classification results from the training and testing TCGA datasets were significantly associated with the overall survival of patients. We also analyzed the survival prediction ability of other clinical factors (gender, age, KPS (Karnofsky performance status), normal cell ratio) and found that these factors were unrelated or weakly correlated with patients' survival. Overall, our studies have demonstrated the effectiveness and robustness of the 2YS model in predicting the clinical outcomes of GBM patients after standard therapies.