Exploring miRNAs' Based Modeling Approach for Predicting PIRA in Multiple Sclerosis: A Comprehensive Analysis

The current hypothesis on the pathophysiology of multiple sclerosis (MS) suggests the involvement of both inflammatory and neurodegenerative mechanisms. Disease Modifying Therapies (DMTs) effectively decrease relapse rates, thus reducing relapse-associated disability in people with MS. In some patients, disability progression, however, is not solely linked to new lesions and clinical relapses but can manifest independently. Progression Independent of Relapse Activity (PIRA) significantly contributes to long-term disability, stressing the urge to unveil biomarkers to forecast disease progression. Twenty-five adult patients with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS) were enrolled in a cohort study, according to the latest McDonald criteria, and tested before and after high-efficacy Disease Modifying Therapies (DMTs) (6-24 months). Through Agilent microarrays, we analyzed miRNA profiles from peripheral blood mononuclear cells. Multivariate logistic and linear models with interactions were generated. Robustness was assessed by randomization tests in R. A subset of miRNAs, correlated with PIRA, and the Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS), was selected. To refine the patient stratification connected to the disease trajectory, we computed a robust logistic classification model derived from baseline miRNA expression to predict PIRA status (AUC = 0.971). We built an optimal multilinear model by selecting four other miRNA predictors to describe EDSS changes compared to baseline. Multivariate modeling offers a promising avenue to uncover potential biomarkers essential for accurate prediction of disability progression in early MS stages. These models can provide valuable insights into developing personalized and effective treatment strategies.