State and trait predictors of cognitive responses to acute stress and uncertainty

Stress occurs when conditions burden or exceed an individual's adaptive resources. Military personnel are often tasked with maintaining peak performance under such stressful conditions. Importantly, the effects of stress are nuanced and may vary as a function of individual traits and states. Recent interdisciplinary research has sought to model and identify such relationships. In two previously reported efforts, Soldiers first completed a comprehensive battery of trait assessments across four general domains thought to be predictive of performance: cognitive, health, physical, and social-emotional, and then completed the Decision-Making under Uncertainty and Stress (DeMUS) virtual reality task that probed spatial cognition, memory, and decision-making under stress and variable uncertainty. The present analysis explores whether cognitive, health, physical, and social-emotional trait assessments, as well as physiological state measures, predict or modulate DeMUS performance outcomes under stress. Multiple regression analyses examined the effect of each trait predictor and stress responsiveness on quantitative task performance outcomes. Results revealed that one measure of state stress reactivity, salivary cortisol, predicted lower recognition memory sensitivity. Further, trait measures of healthy eating, agility, flexibility, cognitive updating, and positive emotion predicted enhanced spatial orienting and decision-making performance and confidence. Together, the results suggest that select individual states and traits may predict cognition under stress. Future research should expand to ecologically relevant military stressors during training and operations.