Comparison of direct and indirect soil organic carbon prediction at farm field scale

To advance sustainable and resilient agricultural management policies, especially during land use changes, it is imperative to monitor, report, and verify soil organic carbon (SOC) content rigorously to inform its stock. However, conventional methods often entail challenging, time-consuming, and costly direct soil measurements. Integrating data from long-term experiments (LTEs) with freely available remote sensing (RS) techniques presents exciting prospects for assessing SOC temporal and spatial change. The objective of this study was to develop a low-cost, field-based statistical model that could be used as a decision-making aid to understand the temporal and spatial variation of SOC content in temperate farmland under different land use and management. A ten-year dataset from the North Wyke Farm Platform, a 20-field, LTE system established in southwestern England in 2010, was used as a case study in conjunction with an RS dataset. Linear, additive and mixed regression models were compared for predicting SOC content based upon combinations of environmental variables that are freely accessible (termed open) and those that require direct measurement or farmer questionnaires (termed closed). These included an RS-derived Ecosystem Services Provision Index (ESPI), topography (slope, aspect), weather (temperature, precipitation), soil (soil units, total nitrogen [TN], pH), and field management practices. Additive models (specifically Generalised Additive Models (GAMs)) were found to be the most effective at predicting space-time SOC variability. When the combined open and closed factors (excluding TN) were considered, significant predictors of SOC were: management related to ploughing being the most important predictor, soil unit (class), aspect, and temperature (GAM fit with a normalised RMSE = 9.1%, equivalent to 0.4% of SOC content). The relative strength of the best-fitting GAM with open data only, which included ESPI, aspect, and slope (normalised RMSE = 13.0%, equivalent to 0.6% of SOC content), suggested that this more practical and cost-effective model enables sufficiently accurate prediction of SOC.